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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.